Change in the relationship between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and boreal summer precipitation over Central China in the late 1990s

Abstract

Recent study revealed a close connection between the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) and boreal summer precipitation over Central China (SPCC). This study further revealed a strengthening of the ASM–SPCC relationship around the late 1990s. It is found that the relationship between the ASM and the SPCC during 1979–1997 (1998–2014) relationship is statistically insignificant (significant). Further analysis indicated that during 1998–2014, the weakened ASM is concurrent with significant positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which could persist into the following boreal summer and further lead to intensified East Asian summer monsoon, strengthened western North Pacific subtropical high, and anomalous ascending motion over Central China. Consequently, more moisture is transported from the western Pacific northward to Central China where significant anomalous convergence appears. Therefore, the ASM could potentially influence the SPCC during 1998–2014. By contrast, the ASM-related SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies in boreal winter are statistically insignificant during 1979–1997. Such an interdecadal change might be attributed to the interdecadal warming that occurred in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea around the late 1990s. This study might be useful for the prediction of the SPCC.