Change in the air due to the coronavirus outbreak in four major cities of India: What do the statistics say?

Abstract

The onset of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has impacted all sectors of society. To avoid the rapid spread of this virus, the Government of India imposed a nationwide lockdown in four phases. Lockdown, due to COVID-19 pandemic, resulted a decline in pollution in India in general and in dense cities in particular. Data on key air quality indicators were collected, imputed, and compiled for the period 1st August 2018 to 31st May 2020 for India's four megacities, namely Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Hyderabad. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and machine learning technique e.g. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the inclusion of lockdown dummy in both the models have been applied to examine the impact of anthropogenic activity on air quality parameters. The number of indicators having significant lockdown dummy are six (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO, benzene, and AQI), five (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and benzene), five (PM10, NOx, CO, benzene and AQI) and three (PM2.5, PM10, and AQI) for Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Hyderabad respectively. It was also observed that the prediction accuracy significantly improved when a lockdown dummy was incorporated. The highest reduction in Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is found for CO in Hyderabad (28.98%) followed by the NOx in Delhi (28.55%). Overall, it can be concluded that there is a significant decline in the value of air quality parameters in the lockdown period as compared to the same time phase in the previous year. Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic will help to achieve significant improvement in ambient air quality while keeping economic growth in mind.