Change in stage after neoadjuvant chemoradiation is associated with survival in patients with esophageal cancer.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine if change in stage after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) was associated with improved survival in esophageal cancer using a national database. Using the National Cancer Database, patients with non-metastatic, resectable esophageal cancer who received neoadjuvant CRT and surgery were identified. Comparing clinical to the pathologic stage, change in stage was classified as pathologic complete response (pCR), downstaged, same-staged, or upstaged. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify factors associated with survival. A total of 7745 patients were identified. The median overall survival (OS) was 34.9 months. Median OS was 60.3 months if pCR, 39.1 months if downstaged, 28.3 months if same-staged, and 23.4 months if upstaged (p < 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, pCR was associated with improved OS compared to the other groups (downstaged: hazard ratio [HR]:1.32 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.46]; same-staged: HR: 1.89 [95% CI: 1.68-2.13]; upstaged: HR: 2.54 [95% CI: 2.25-2.86]; all p < 0.0001). In this large database study, change in stage after neoadjuvant CRT was strongly associated with survival for patients with non-metastatic, resectable esophageal cancer. There was a significant stepwise decline in survival, in descending order of pCR, downstaged tumor, same-staged tumor, and upstaged tumor.