Change in framingham cardiovascular disease risk between 2003 and 2014 in the hong kong population health survey

Abstract

Abstract Background The Framingham Risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Purpose We aimed to calculate the change in sex-age specific Framingham CVD risk in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 in comparison with the survey in 2003–05 (PHS2003/2004 & Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005). Methods Subjects aged 30–74 years from PHS2014/15 (n=1,662, n=4,445,869 after population weighing) and PHS2003/2004 & HHS2004/2005 (n=818, n=3,495,074 after population weighing) with complete data for the calculation of Framingham CVD predicted risk were included. The sex-specific CVD risks of participants were calculated based on their age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habits, diabetic status, and treatment for hypertension. The mean sex-age specific CVD risks were then calculated, and the differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were analysed using ANOVA. Results There was no significant difference in 10-year CVD risks between the 2003–2005 and 2014/15 study populations (10.2% vs. 10.6%, p=0.29). After adjusting to a standard population (US Census 2000), the age-standardized CVD risk was lower in 2014–2015 than in 2003–05 (10.0% vs. 10.7%, p=0.017). More participants aged 65–74 were classified as high risk during 2003/04 (PHS2003/2004 & HHS2004/2005: 66.8% vs. PHS2014/15: 53.1%, p=0.026). This might be due to the decrease in the proportion of smokers among men (2003–2005: 30.5% vs. 24.0% in 2014–15, p<0.001). Conclusions Between 2003/04 and 2014/15, there was a small decrease in age-standardized 10-year CVD risk, which might be related to the reduction in smoking. However, more effort in targeting multiple CVD risk factors simultaneously is needed to achieve a greater reduction in CVD risk. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.