Change in Age profile of Respiratory Syncytial Virus disease over the course of annual epidemics: a multi-national study

Abstract

We aimed to study whether the percentwise age distribution of RSV cases changes over time during annual epidemics. We used surveillance data (2008-2019) from the Netherlands, Lyon (France), Portugal, Singapore, Ecuador, South Africa, and New Zealand. In each country, every season was divided into "epidemic quarters", i.e. periods corresponding to each quartile of RSV cases. Multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate whether the likelihood of RSV cases being aged <1 or ≥5years (vs. 1 to <5) changed over time within a season. In all countries, RSV cases were significantly more likely to be aged <1year in the 4th vs. 1st epidemic quarter; the relative risk ratio [RRR] ranged between 1.35 and 2.56. Likewise, RSV cases were significantly more likely to be aged ≥5years in the 4th vs. 1st epidemic quarter (except in Singapore); the RRR ranged from 1.75 to 6.70. The results did not change when stratifying by level of care or moving the lower cut-off to 6months. The age profile of RSV cases shifts within a season, with infants and adolescents, adults, and the elderly constituting a higher proportion of cases in the later phases of annual epidemics. These findings may have implications for RSV prevention policies with newly approved vaccines.