Change Characteristics and Multilevel Influencing Factors of Real Estate Inventory—Case Studies from 35 Key Cities in China

Abstract

High inventory is a common issue in urban real estate markets in many countries, posing a threat to the sustainable development of macroeconomics and society. This study built an analytical framework for the evolution of real estate inventory and its driving mechanisms and conducted an empirical study on 35 key cities in China. The findings show that, first, China has a huge real estate inventory with significant spatial heterogeneity. Second, the real estate inventory in China first rises and then falls, presenting an inverted U-shaped change trend; however, the spatial heterogeneity first falls and then rises, characterized by a U-shaped evolutionary change. Third, the present characteristics and evolutionary paths vary among different types of real estate inventory, mainly showing growth, stability, and inverted U-shaped changes. Fourth, the influencing factors of real estate inventory are increasingly diversified, and different factor pairs show bifactor-enhanced and nonlinearly-enhanced interaction effects, with a more intricate and complex driving mechanism. Fifth, four types of policy areas were divided according to the Boston Consulting Group Matrix, and it is recommended that the design of de-stocking policies should be dominated by “key factors” for cities in the stars and cows policy areas, while “important factors” and “auxiliary factors” should be equally emphasized for cities in the question policy area; the cities in the dogs policy area should keep the status quo as much as possible with avoidance of undesirable or excessive interventions.