Abstract
Early in the pandemic, slowing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing restrictions in March and April of 2020, though policies varied both in timing and scope. Compared to states with Democratic governors, those with Republican governors often adopted measures for shorter durations and with greater resistance from their residents. In Kentucky, an extremely close gubernatorial election immediately prior to the discovery of SARS-CoV-2 replaced a Republican incumbent with a Democrat, despite Republicans easily winning all other statewide races. This chance election result offers a unique opportunity to examine the impact of early social distancing policies in a relatively conservative, rural, white-working-class state. Our study begins by estimating an event-study model to link adoption of several common social distancing measures-public school closures, bans on large gatherings, closures of entertainment-related businesses such as restaurants, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs)-to the growth rate of cases across counties in the Midwest and South in the early stages of the pandemic. These policies combined to slow the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases by 9 percentage points after 16 days, with SIPOs and entertainment establishment closures accounting for the entire effect. In order to obtain results with more direct applicability to Kentucky, we then estimate a model that interacts the policy variables with a "white working class" index characterized by political conservatism, rurality, and high percentages of white, evangelical Christian residents without college degrees. We find that the effectiveness of early social distancing measures decreased with higher values of this index. The results imply that the restrictions combined to slow the spread of COVID-19 by 12 percentage points per day in Kentucky's two largest urban counties but had no statistically detectable effect across the rest of the state.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic has become the defining public health challenge of our time and the greatest economic threat since the Great Recession
We find that the effectiveness of early social distancing measures decreased with higher values of this index
As cases began to emerge in the United States in March 2020, states and localities implemented social distancing restrictions that varied in timing and scope
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic has become the defining public health challenge of our time and the greatest economic threat since the Great Recession. Our previous work estimates an event-study model with all U.S counties and show that SIPOs strongly reduced the growth rate of COVID-19 cases, while closing entertainment-related businesses (including bars and restaurants) had a moderate effect [12]. SIPOs were the most effective policy in slowing the spread of COVID-19; closing entertainment-related facilities such as restaurants, bars, and gyms was the second most effective; and closing schools and banning large events (in the absence of a SIPO) had no statistically discernable effect In all, these policies combined to reduce the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases by 9 percentage points–a substantial impact relative to the sample mean of 11%. Entertainment center closures and the second-earliest gathering bans and SIPOs
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