Chance-constrained optimization of hybrid solar combined cooling, heating and power system considering energetic, economic, environmental, and flexible performances

Abstract

Uncertain parameters and factors substantially impact the operational performances of combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) systems. This paper constructs a chance-constrained programming model for system design and energy dispatch management of a hybrid solar CCHP system under the uncertainties of solar energy and building loads. The uncertain scenarios with probability distributions are generated in the Latin hypercube sampling and clustering methods. The chance-constrained model transforms stochastic optimization into deterministic optimization based on these scenarios. Then, the multi-objective optimization model of CCHP system considering the performances of economic, energy, emission, and flexibility is established, and the modified ε-constraint method is employed to obtain Pareto solutions. A case study validates the proposed model. The capacities and operational strategies of components in the hybrid CCHP system are optimized, and the impacts of the confidence level of probability distributions of uncertain factors on the optimization results are discussed. The results indicate that the photovoltaic capacity in the hybrid CCHP system declines by 87.5% when the confidence level increases from 0.50 to 0.99. But other components’ capacities are raised, and the gas turbine capacity as the key component rises by 10.49%. The energetic and environmental performances of the CCHP system rise with the confidence level, and the operation safety is improved.