Abstract
This paper presents a new chance-constrained optimization (CCO) formulation for the bulk carrier conceptual design. The CCO problem is modeled through the scenario design approach. We conducted extensive numerical experiments comparing the convergence of both canonical and state-of-the-art metaheuristic algorithms on the original and CCO formulations and showed that the CCO formulation is substantially more difficult to solve. The two best-performing methods were both found to be differential evolution-based algorithms. We then provide an analysis of the resulting solutions in terms of the dependence of the distribution functions of the unit transportation costs and annual cargo capacity of the ship design on the probability of violating the chance constraints.
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