Challenging extremism: A randomized control trial examining the impact of counternarratives in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of counternarratives in reducing the attractiveness of the jihadi ideology among Sunni Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa. The research design was divided into two phases. Phase 1 involved a) creating a comprehensive list of counternarrative disseminated by three main regional organizations (Antibiotics, I-Dare, and Sawab Center) and b) quantifying the public interest these counternarrative generated using social media metrics. Phase 2 involved selecting the top two counternarratives identified in Phase 1 and testing their psychological impact in an experiment that measured both primary and secondary outcomes related to extremism. To this end, a survey was distributed to Sunni Muslims (N = 2,009) living in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Survey respondents were randomly assigned to one of three messages: a baseline control group or one of the two top counternarratives. Results indicated that the counternarratives had mixed effects on primary and secondary outcomes related to extremism. One of the two counternarrative mitigated Islamic extremism; however, the effect size was negligible, indicating limited practical significance. Moreover, counternarrative had no impact on pro-violence attitudes, perception of the West, or emotions. The key takeaway of this research is that counternarratives have a negligible impact on outcomes relevant to violent extremism. We recommend a roadmap for organizations to increase the effectiveness of counternarrative campaigns in the MENA region.