Abstract
Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
Highlights
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in different parts of the world [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11] and is associated with substantial economic losses [12,13,14]
The database search resulted in 1176 accessible citations: 1011, 39, and 126 from Google Scholar (GS), PubMed, and Web of Science (WoS), respectively
Published original research describing or using spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) model(s) was assessed in this study to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt the SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings
Summary
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in different parts of the world [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11] and is associated with substantial economic losses [12,13,14]. The costs associated with production losses and vaccination in endemic regions amount to USD 6.5-21 billion, and the annual outbreak-associated losses in FMD-free countries and zones exceed USD 1.5 billion [14] International organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World. Simulation modeling has become common to investigate the spread of highly contagious diseases, assist in policymaking, and act as a decision support tool [20,21,22,23,24] These models can be categorized as deterministic or stochastic based on how they incorporate variability and uncertainty and nonspatial or spatially explicit based on how they treat spatial relationships [25]. Considering the epidemiology and ecology of FMD, these models are most appropriate for simulating FMD spread in endemic and free settings
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