Challenges of Sea-Ice Prediction for Arctic Marine Policy and Planning

Abstract

ABSTRACTSea ice presents an important challenge for trans-border coordination of Arctic maritime infrastructure. Widespread summer sea-ice melt and anticipated expansion of shipping and offshore oil and gas drilling have highlighted a need for seasonal forecasts and decadal projections of sea ice for strategic planning efforts. While the long-term trend in sea-ice extent is expected to remain negative, ice conditions exhibit large spatial and temporal variability, raising uncertainty and operational risks of navigation in seasonally ice-covered areas. Given the potential trans-border impacts of a maritime accident on the marine and coastal environment, predicting ice conditions is of critical interest to government, industry, and community stakeholders. Seasonal ice forecasts have shown promise for short-term operational decision-making, while decadal projections from general circulation models are increasingly being used for long-term planning of energy, security, and environmental policy. However, numerous issues complicate the application of sea-ice prediction methods for policy and planning. This paper examines the potential of sea-ice prediction as a tool to support strategic planning, with a focus on the trans-border marine space of the US and Canadian Arctic. The utility and limitations of seasonal and decadal sea-ice prediction are reviewed, followed by a discussion of the infrastructure and policy context within which sea-ice forecasts may be used to enhance safety and mitigate risk in the Arctic.