Abstract
Abstract. During winter the Yellow River in China is frequently subjected to ice flood disasters. Possible dike breaking due to ice floods poses a serious threat to the part of the region located along the river, in particular the Ning–Meng reach (including Ningxia Hui and the Inner Mongolia autonomous regions). Due to its special geographical location and river flow direction, the ice dams and jams lead to dike breaking and overtopping on the embankment, which has resulted in huge casualties and property losses throughout history. Therefore, there is a growing need to develop capability in forecasting and analysing river ice floods. Research into ice floods along the river is taking place at the Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC). A numerical model is one of the essential parts of the current research going on at the YRCC, which can be used to supplement the inadequacies in the field and lab studies which are being carried out to help understand the physical processes of river ice on the Yellow River. Based on the available data about the Ning–Meng reach of the Yellow River, the YRCC river ice dynamic model (YRIDM) has been tested for capabilities to conduct ice flood forecasting. The YRIDM can be applied to simulate water level, discharge, water temperature, and ice cover thickness under unsteady-state conditions. Different scenarios were designed to explore the model uncertainty for two bounds (5 and 95%) and probability distribution. The YRIDM is an unsteady-state flow model that can show the basic regular pattern of ice floods; hence it can be used as an important tool to support decision making. The recommendation is that data and research should be continued in order to support the model and to measure improvements.
Highlights
River ice is a natural phenomenon that can be commonly seen in the cold regions of the world
River ice plays an important role in cold regions, being the main transportation means in wintertime: the ice roads and ice bridges caused by river ice in the northern regions of Canada, Russia, and the USA (Alaska), where the population is sparse, are a positive effect of the ice formation in cold regions (Petrow et al, 2007; Rojas et al, 2011)
The Inner Mongolia reach is located on the north of the Yellow River basin between 106◦10 E– 112◦50 E, 37◦35 N–41◦50 N
Summary
River ice is a natural phenomenon that can be commonly seen in the cold regions of the world. On the negative side, river ice can cause ice flooding, hamper hydropower generation, threaten hydraulic structures, hinder water supply and river navigation, and has many other important detrimental effects. These floods have caused huge casualties and property losses, especially on the Ning–Meng reach of the Yellow River. Fu et al.: Challenges in modelling river flow and ice regime the physical processes of river ice, and at the same time, they can be a tool to help design and plan engineering projects They have become valuable tools for exploring the research area of river ice, such as understanding the physical processes and simulating river ice phenomena, and even forecasting ice floods (Dahkle et al, 2012).
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