Challenges in block-and-ash flow hazard assessment: The July 10–11, 2015 eruption of Volcán de Colima, Mexico

Abstract

On July 10 and 11, 2015, Volcán de Colima, one of the most active Mexican volcanoes, underwent its largest eruption since the 1913 Plinian event. Highly mobile block-and-ash flows (BAF) originated from the dome collapse and subsequent extrusion of bubble gas-rich magma from the conduit. The volume and runout of flows were at least one order of magnitude higher (106 m3) than the events observed previously in the 2004–2005 eruptive episode (105 m3) and only comparable with the pyroclastic density currents emplaced during the Vulcanian eruptive phase that preceded the 1913 Plinian eruption. The TITAN2D code is here used to understand the factors controlling the mobility of the dense BAF undercurrents emplaced during the 2015 eruption. The selection of different input parameters was based on field data, on the seismic signal of the BAFs recorded by a broadband station located a few meters away from the channel, and by considering the different eruptive mechanisms of the July 10 eruptive phase (collapsing dome) with respect to the July 11 event (rapid extrusion of degassed magma directly from the conduit). A collapsing pile best fits the July 10 BAF, with an initial spread on the proximal reach and subsequent emplacement along the Montegrande ravine. Instead, for the July 11 BAF, an influx source best replicates the observed distribution, including the overspilling down the San Antonio ravine at the middle reach and the aggradation at the final depositional fan. Both events were better reproduced with the Voellmy-Salm rheology with respect to the Mohr-Coulomb model. Still, the mobility of the July 11 BAF was controlled mainly by the channel reduced capacity due to the 10 July BAF infilling. This was assessed by modeling the 11 July BAF on the real terrain and on a DEM whose altitude was modified based on the maximum flow depth obtained from the simulation of the former flow. Deep knowledge of the eruptive mechanism and flow behavior during the 2015 eruption allowed us to understand the main factors controlling concentrated pyroclastic density current mobility during sustained, multi-phase eruptions, especially for valley-confined BAF. The results presented here set the basis to improve the hazard zonation for pyroclastic density currents at Volcán de Colima, which should be based on a multifactor, probabilistic analysis.