Challenges for social cohesion after de-occupation: social and political reintegration and attitudes toward residents of temporarily occupied territories

Abstract

The future reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine requires social cohesion in Ukrainian society: both for those who survived the occupation and those who lived in the governmentcontrolled territories. This article aims to determine the attitudes of residents of the government-controlled territories toward those who remain under occupation and to identify to what extent the issues of elections and (un)restriction of voting rights, the economic and cultural support programs, and the recognition of education certificates obtained in the occupied territories may hinder social cohesion after de-occupation. The study is based on the results of two waves of a nationwide survey conducted in October 2023 and March 2024. The paper analyses the survey results using descriptive statistics methods, and the linear regression analysis is conducted to test the hypothesis regarding the relations between the attitudes toward residents of occupied territories and having close relatives there. The study shows that Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the residents of the temporarily occupied territories are rather neutral than positive, which may indicate future lines of social tension. The support for reintegration policies varies depending on the duration of the occupation and the policy area. If the benefits and resources the policy addresses are perceived as scarce, the support for such policy is lower, as is the case of special university admission programs for school graduates from occupied territories. Also, Ukrainians’ positions differ in scenarios for restoration of local governance after de-occupation depending on the territories in question. Immediate restoration is a preferred scenario for territories occupied in 2022, while for territories occupied since 2014, the intermediate period of five years is envisioned.