Abstract
Since the introduction of mechanized production in both developed and developing countries, crops and their management have undergone significant adaptation resulting in increased productivity. Historical yield increases in wheat have occurred across most regions of the world (20–88 kg ha−1 year−1), but climate trends threaten to dampen or reverse these gains such that yields are expected to decrease by 5–6% despite rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Current and projected climatic factors are temporally and spatially variable in dryland cereal production systems throughout the world. Productivity gains in wheat in some locations have been achieved from traditional agronomic practices and breeding. Continued improvement in all cereal production regions and locations of the world requires technical advances, including closer monitoring of soils, water conservation strategies, and multiple sowing times using different crops to reduce risks. The management of disease, pests, and weeds will be an added challenge, especially in areas of higher precipitation. Excellent progress has been achieved in Asia and there is much potential in Sub-Saharan Africa. Technical solutions seem within our grasp but must be implemented in the context of variable social, economic, regulatory, and administrative constraints, providing opportunities for cross fertilization and global collaboration to meet them.
Highlights
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and accompanying rising temperatures are underway and are generally projected to increase worldwide, but the specific changes will differ widely depending upon latitude, geography, and other factors affecting regional and local climates
We provide an assessment of global changes in climate and performance of small-grain cereal systems, primarily wheat systems, drawing upon data and examples from Africa, Australia, China, South Asia, and North and South America
There are, clear patterns in some parts of Australia in recent years (Figure 1c) with long wet and dry periods associated with the Pacific El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [28,29,30] and higher temperatures in the south-eastern part of Australia (Figure 1d)
Summary
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and accompanying rising temperatures are underway and are generally projected to increase worldwide, but the specific changes will differ widely depending upon latitude, geography, and other factors affecting regional and local climates. One is that crop adaptation to climate change will occur naturally or autonomously because farmers have always adjusted and must continue to adjust their practices to climates and this has been successfully coupled with responsive science in the 20th century This view comes from the relatively high rates of yield gains achieved to date from traditional agronomic and breeding activity despite the changing climate [5]. The other view advocates transformational or revolutionary change in agriculture [6,7] with a focus beyond our present farming systems to meet the future demands of greater productivity to feed a more populous world under projected climatic conditions The former appears reasonable for the short term, since the recent 1% per year yield gains in wheat globally are close to performance needs for the 15 years [1,5,8], but this is uncertain and perhaps inadequate beyond 2030. We use historical climate and yield trends and climate and yield projections and apply a systems perspective to highlight common actions needed globally to assist in developing research and extension strategies to adapt to our changing climate
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