Abstract
Global emissions pathways that would limit warming to 1.5 or well below 2°C, consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, rely on substantial reductions of agricultural greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide) along with reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Failure to reduce agricultural emissions would require even more rapid cuts of carbon dioxide emissions and could jeopardise the ability to limit warming to 1.5°C. Modelled pathways that achieve the necessary agricultural emission reductions do so by pricing agricultural emissions. However, there is a large gap between such model scenarios and reality when it comes to the agricultural sector. To date, no single country currently exposes agricultural emissions to any mandatory carbon price and current evidence suggests considerable reluctance to the application of other climate policies with comparable stringency to agriculture. A more realistic view is needed if we are to avoid modelled emission scenarios providing an overly optimistic picture of mitigation potentials from the agricultural sector. There are entry points for mitigation of agricultural greenhouse gases outside government price policies, but many questions remain around their scalability and efficacy. A comprehensive and accelerated effort will be needed to bridge the gap from modelled emissions to realistic policy pathways.
Highlights
MODELS AND REALITY FOR GLOBAL AGRICULTURE MITIGATIONThe recent IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 1.5◦C (IPCC, 2018) details a wide range of global emission pathways that would achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement but they all include substantial reductions in agricultural greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide) below forecast baseline trends (Huppmann et al, 2018)
Specialty section: This article was submitted to Climate-Smart Food Systems, a section of the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
The most ambitious scenarios assessed by the IPCC (2018) that limit warming to 1.5◦C with limited or no overshoot reduce global agricultural emissions by 16–41% in 2050 relative to 2010, whereas baseline emission increase by 24–54% over the same period
Summary
The recent IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 1.5◦C (IPCC, 2018) details a wide range of global emission pathways that would achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement but they all include substantial reductions in agricultural greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide) below forecast baseline trends (Huppmann et al, 2018). The most ambitious scenarios assessed by the IPCC (2018) that limit warming to 1.5◦C with limited or no overshoot reduce global agricultural emissions by 16–41% (interquartile range) in 2050 relative to 2010, whereas baseline emission increase by 24–54% over the same period. This amounts to a median reduction of direct global agricultural non-CO2 emissions of 4.8 Gt CO2-eq below baseline by 2050 (Huppmann et al, 2018; Frank et al, 2019)
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