Challenges and Opportunities with New Generation Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Datasets for Analyses and Initial Conditions for Forecasting Hurricane Irma (2017) Rapid Intensification Event

Abstract

This study utilizes an extremely high spatial resolution GOES-16 atmospheric motion vector (AMV) dataset processed at 15 min intervals in a modified version of our original dynamic initialization technique to analyze and forecast a rapid intensification (RI) event in Hurricane Irma (2017). The most important modifications are a more time-efficient dynamic initialization technique and adding a near-surface wind field adjustment as a low-level constraint on the distribution of deep convection relative to the translating center. With the new technique, the Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model initial wind field at 12.86 km elevation quickly adjusts to the cirrus-level GOES-16 AMVs to better detect the Irma outflow magnitude and areal extent every 15 min, and predicts direct connections to adjacent synoptic circulations much better than a dynamic initialization with only lower-resolution hourly GOES-13 AMVs and also better than a cold-start COAMPS-TC initialization with a bogus vortex. Furthermore, only with the GOES-16 AMVs does the COAMPS-TC model accurately predict the timing of an intermediate 12 h constant-intensity period between two segments of the Irma RI. By comparison, HWRF model study of the Irma case that utilized the same GOES-16 AMV dataset predicted a continuous RI without the intermediate constant-intensity period, and predicted more limited outflow areal extents without strong direct connections with adjacent synoptic circulations.