Challenges and opportunities in crop simulation modelling under seasonal and projected climate change scenarios for crop production in South Africa

Abstract

A broad scope of crop models with varying demands on data inputs is being used for several purposes, such as possible adaptation strategies to control climate change impacts on future crop production, management decisions, and adaptation policies. A constant challenge to crop model simulation, especially for future crop performance projections and impact studies under varied conditions, is the unavailability of reliable historical data for model calibrations. In some cases, available input data may not be in the quantity and quality needed to drive most crop models. Even when a suitable choice of a crop simulation model is selected, data limitations hamper some of the models’ effective role for projections. To date, no review has looked at factors inhibiting the effective use of crop simulation models and complementary sources for input data in South Africa. This review looked at the barriers to crop simulation, relevant sources from which input data for crop models can be sourced, and proposed a framework for collecting input data. Results showed that barriers to effective simulations exist because, in most instances, the input data, like climate, soil, farm management practices, and cultivar characteristics, were generally incomplete, poor in quality, and not easily accessible or usable. We advocate a hybrid approach for obtaining input data for model calibration and validation. Recommended methods depending on the intended outputs and end use of model results include remote sensing, field, and greenhouse experiments, secondary data, engaging with farmers to model actual on-farm conditions. Thus, employing more than one method of data collection for input data for models can reduce the challenges faced by crop modellers due to the unavailability of data. The future of modelling depends on the goodness and availability of the input data, the readiness of modellers to cooperate on modularity and standardization, and potential user groups’ ability to communicate.