Ch. 8. Stochastic processes in epidemic modelling and simulation

Abstract

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the uses of stochastic processes in epidemiology, mathematical modeling and the simulation of epidemics. The chapter presents several classical applications of stochastic processes in epidemic theory —namely, the Chain Binomial, followed by the simple and general stochastic epidemic models. It focuses on the application of stochastic processes in spatial epidemic modeling, particularly percolation processes, simulation modeling, and diffusion processes. One of the major motivations for studying epidemic models is to make predictions about control strategies such as vaccination of susceptible individuals or removal of infected ones. The chapter discusses stochastic models for the control of epidemics and applications of stochastic modeling for several specific diseases, including HIV/AIDS. This is followed by a description of some uses of stochastic methods in parameter estimation and hypothesis testing.