财税政策经济影响分析：以减税政策为例的CGE模型应用 （The Analysis of the Economic Impact of Tax Policies: An Empirical Analysis of Tax Reduction Policy Based on CGE Model）

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: 税收作为国家财政政策的重要手段，对国家宏观经济、行业部门发展、社会资源配置、收入分配产生重要影响。随着我国供给侧结构性改革深化，减税降费政策成为国家宏观经济调控重要举措。本文将通过构建财税可计算一般均衡模型（CGE），分析国家减税政策对宏观经济和行业部门影响。政策模拟结果表明，减税政策对宏观经济起到积极的推动作用，制造业上游如采掘、化工、机械设备等行业部门生产成本普遍下降幅度较大，同时也刺激了这些行业部门产出与扩大投资。此外，批发和零售、电力、烟草制品、汽车制造业、采掘等行业部门整体减税规模较大，成为减税政策最大受益部门。 English Abstract: Tax policies has significant impact on a country’s macroeconomics, industrial development, and distribution of social resource and social income. With deepening process of China’s supply-side structural reform, the policy of tax reduction has become one of the most important measures of China’s macroeconomic regulation. This paper constructs a tax-based computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of tax reduction policy on China’s macroeconomics and industrial sectors. The simulation result shows that tax reduction policy will have positive impact on the country’s economic growth. At the same time, the production costs of the manufacturing industry such as mining, chemical, machinery equipment sectors will decrease significantly, and their output and investment will increase. In addition, benefiting from the policy, the sectors of wholesale and retails, electricity, tobacco, vehicle manufacturing and mining will have a significant amount of tax reduction.