Abstract
The present study aimed to numerically establish a new metamodel for predicting the propagation distribution of styrene, which is one of the hazardous and noxious substances (HNSs) spilled from ships. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted for 80 different scenarios to gather large amounts of data on the spatial distribution of the change in concentration over time. We used the commercial code of ANSYS Fluent (V.17.2) to solve the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, together with the scalar transport equation. Based on the CFD results, we adopted the well-known kriging model to create a metamodel that estimated the propagation velocity and spatial distributions by considering the effect of the current surface velocity, deep current velocity, surface layer depth, and crack position. The results show that the metamodel accurately predicted the changes in the local distribution of styrene over time. This model was also evaluated using the hidden-point test.
Highlights
Hazardous and noxious substances (HNSs), often transported by ships, are harmful to living resources, marine life, and even human health when spilled into the sea [1,2,3]
The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed for eight additional cases, which were regarded as the hidden points
The present study developed a new metamodel for predicting the styrene propagation distribution and boundary arrival time
Summary
Hazardous and noxious substances (HNSs), often transported by ships, are harmful to living resources, marine life, and even human health when spilled into the sea [1,2,3]. Fuhrer et al [8] released a floating cell containing a small amount of styrene into the sea and monitored the residual concentration over time They reported that only 50% of the initial amount of spilled styrene remained just after one hour. Experimental data have been reported in the Standard European Behavior Classification (SEBC) code These data have limitations because the experiments were mostly conducted for pure products under atmospheric conditions in a laboratory. Actual propagation behavior is different from the experimental results reported previously Another issue in carrying out the experiments is about the safety caused by the lethal toxicity of the HNSs. When the real experiment is conducted in the sea, the marine ecosystem and living resources will be at risk and eventually destroyed. The hidden point tests were conducted to obtain more accurate solutions
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