Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future.

Pei-Ling Du,Wen-Rui Tang,Kun Lin,Jia-Ying Fang,Ku-Sheng Wu,Zhen-Xi Xu,Xiao-Ling Xu,Yang Zeng

doi:10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.15.6391

Pei-Ling Du, Wen-Rui Tang + Show 6 more

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https://doi.org/10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.15.6391

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Abstract

To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

Highlights

Worldwide, cervical cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in female, and it is the third leading cause of death for women in less developed country (Torre et al, 2015)
Implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions
Cervical cancer was associated with relevant risk factors include human papillomavirus virus (HPV), socioeconomic context, health behavior, and smoking (Gonzaga et al, 2013); these risk factors have an impact on the prevalence of cervical cancer in China

Summary

Introduction

Cervical cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in female, and it is the third leading cause of death for women in less developed country (Torre et al, 2015). The epidemiological characteristics of cervical cancer are continually changing According to these investigations, cervical cancer was associated with relevant risk factors include human papillomavirus virus (HPV), socioeconomic context, health behavior, and smoking (Gonzaga et al, 2013); these risk factors have an impact on the prevalence of cervical cancer in China. Cervical cancer was associated with relevant risk factors include human papillomavirus virus (HPV), socioeconomic context, health behavior, and smoking (Gonzaga et al, 2013); these risk factors have an impact on the prevalence of cervical cancer in China Focused on this major public health problem in China, the present study aimed to explore the incidence and mortality trends of cervical cancer for woman in China, and to provide useful information for mapping our strategies for cervical cancer prevention, epidemiological research of cervical cancer, and cervical cancer control implementation and evaluation. Implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central)

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