Cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea may show inter-annual cyclicity: An example of about a 1.5-year cycle for malaria incidence in Burundi

Abstract

AbstractBest available descriptions of malaria incidence and mortality dynamics are important to better plan and evaluate the implementation of programs to monitor (e.g., remote sensing) and control the disease, especially in endemic zones. This was stressed recently by Cibulskis et al (2007) in the view of completeness of monthly reporting for cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea (latitude 6 degree S, 1987-1996). Notably, regardless of the rate of its completeness, the temporal dynamics of admissions was preserved over the years, however, neither raw data nor results on further analyses about eventual inter-annual cyclic components (periods T>1 year) were provided despite obvious graphical patterns for such a specific time structure (chronome). Interestingly, in a recent analysis by Gomez-Elipe et al (2007) on monthly malaria notifications in Burundi, at almost the same latitude (province of Karuzi, >3 degree S, 1997-2001), the data have shown neither trend not periodic oscillations beyond a 6-month (0.5-year) period. Since the graphical representation of both data sets have indicated an eventual existence of inter-annual variations, and because both are located at the same latitude zone, we have further analyzed the data from Burundi for such periodic oscillations. By using a periodogram regression analysis, we discovered a multicomponent cyclic chronome with periods above 12 months (T=17.5-18.0, 27.5 and 65.0-65.5 months, all at p<0.05). Notably, the most strong cyclic pattern at p<0.002 in the periodogram of the detrended malaria rates in Burundi remained only that with a peak at about 1.5 years (period T=17.5-18.0 months, R=0.51, z=5.3). It is possible that likely inter-annual cyclic patterns might exist also in the time structure for cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea and, if confirmed, these may be found very useful in epidemic forecasting and programs implementation. We explored these cyclic variations and also discussed possible associations with environmental factors exhibiting alike cyclicity.