Abstract
The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/2016 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.
Highlights
Understanding moisture trends is critical in projecting future crop production under changing climatic conditions [1,2]
The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), through the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) in partnership with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), intends to increase the irrigated area in Africa by 100% by 2025 from the baseline value of the year 2000 at an estimated cost of US$37 billion [35,36], the increasing drought recurrence and intensity, as well as the increasing aridity present the greatest obstacle for the region to meet the target
The evident and adverse climate change impacts on the agriculture sector in southern Africa that include reduced crop yields and new strains of pests and diseases, require evidence based adaptations policy frameworks that leads to the resiliency of the agricultural system
Summary
Understanding moisture trends (both soil moisture and rainfall) is critical in projecting future crop production under changing climatic conditions [1,2]. The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region is expected to be affected the most by moisture deficits as changes in rainfall patterns are resulting in changes in the area suitable for growing many crops [11,12,13]. The impacts of climate change on water and agriculture in southern Africa can be catastrophic as agriculture is the main sector, providing approximately 17% of regional GDP The study further assesses the impact of the changes in rainfall patterns and variability, increasing aridity and variations in seasons on cereal yields in the region. The aim was to provide evidence to policy and decision-making on cereal production as impacted by climate change in the region, as the region moves towards a transformative adaptation in the agricultural sector.
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