Cereal Crops Yield, Food Security and Agricultural Growth in Nigeria: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach

Abstract

The study assessed the impact of the yield of selected cereal crops on food security and agricultural growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2020 using time series data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation and Central Bank of Nigeria analyzed using descriptive statistics, ADF test, Johansen Co-integration, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results revealed that the trend of maize and rice yield fluctuated considerably over the years, while the trend of agricultural growth experienced an appreciable level of increase. Variables were stationary on first differencing and co-integration exist among the variables. In the long-run, rice yield significantly affected food security while maize yield did not. The coefficient of rice yield (−1.941) was statistically significant. Rice and maize yield significantly affected agricultural growth. The study concluded that the cereal crop sub-sector in Nigeria needs to be strengthened in terms of increased financing, policy enactment, and government commitment to enhance agricultural growth and food security.