CERCBET 3 – a forecaster for epidemic development of Cercospora beticola*

Abstract

Cercospora beticola is the most prevalent and damaging fungal disease in German sugar beet growing. Control strategies are based on action thresholds. A model has been developed which forecasts epidemic development (expressed as disease incidence) and signals when action thresholds are overridden. The plot‐specific model, CERCBET 3 uses as input meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity), easily accessible agronomic field characteristics and a single recording of C. beticola disease incidence. Extensive validation in 2001–03 showed that, in 80–95% of the cases, CERCBET 3 correctly forecasted the dates when thresholds were overridden. Cultivar diversity in German sugar beet growing is increasing, thus a module has been included into CERCBET 3 which reflects susceptibility to C. beticola by introducing a sporulation factor. In some cases a second or even third fungicide treatment could be necessary to control Cercospora leaf spot and so a further module which models fungicide efficacy has been elaborated. CERCBET 3 is available for sugar beet growers in an interactive form on the Internet platform ISIP, which is provided by the governmental crop protection services of Germany.