Century to multi‐century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models

Abstract

Long‐term projections of global‐ocean thermal expansion (GTE) and the dynamic sea level (DSL) change are analyzed with 34 new CMIP5 models and under three greenhouse‐gas emission scenarios. Multi‐model ensemble mean (MEM) and ensemble standard deviation are calculated to identify robust features and quantify uncertainty. While the MEM of GTE shows moderate difference by 2100, with magnitudes of 13, 18 and 28 cm in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, it increases and diverges significantly by 2300, with magnitudes of 21, 52 and 119 cm in the three scenarios. Model‐to‐model spread seems reduced in CMIP5 compared to CMIP3. The MEM changes of the DSL show similar patterns between different RCPs, but with progressively larger magnitudes in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Notable features identified previously in the CMIP3 projections also occur in CMIP5, indicating their robustness across generations of climate model and emission scenario. The CMIP5 models still show disagreement in projecting the DSL changes, even under the same external forcing.