Centralising forces undermine Kenya security push

Abstract

Significance Linda Boni was launched in September, targeting Somalia's Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin and its Kenyan network, in particular the Jaysh Ayman militia linked to attacks on civilians and security personnel in Lamu county in 2014 and 2015. The security response has seen a shake-up since the Garissa University College attack in April 2015, but has not moved away from centralised structures. Impacts Low oil prices have tempered industry appetite for exploration and production in northern Kenya, but Kenyan expectations remain high. Infrastructure, particularly Lamu Port and energy projects in Marsabit and Lamu counties, will extend central elite interest in these areas. As the early 2017 elections approach, 2016 will see increasing jockeying for positions at county level, with tensions likely to emerge.