Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998–2004

Abstract

In this study we analyse transparency and credibility of the National Bank of Poland's monetary policy under the inflation-targeting regime in the period 1998–2004. To verify NBP transparency we analyse the transparency of the monetary policy framework and the predictability of policy decisions. With respect to the former, we present some indicators suggested in the literature, while with respect to the latter we analyse the formation of interest rate expectations by commercial bank analysts. As far as NBP credibility is concerned, we evaluate the way in which inflation expectations of consumers and commercial bank analysts are formed and how they are related to the inflation target.