Central Asian river streamflows have not continued to increase during the recent warming hiatus

Abstract

The recent warming hiatus started around 1998; however, how Central Asian river streamflows have responded to this warming slowdown remains unclear. Based on the instrumental streamflow records of eight rivers in Central Asian, we showed that the Central Asian streamflow variation is due to the change in precipitation/drought resulting from sea surface temperature changes in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and that equatorial eastern Pacific surface cooling has been the main driver of the slowdown in streamflow increase in Central Asia over the past two decades. Temperature is also likely an important driver of streamflow variation on the Pamirs Plateau during the warm season; however, the linkage between temperature and streamflow is not stable due in part to the precipitation-induced cooling. Central Asian river streamflow is very sensitive to variations in climate factors, and the influences of climate change on streamflow should be considered continuously by water resource managers.