Central Asia – Russia: Opportunities and Limitations in Building a Joint Future (Foresight Analysis)

Abstract

Central Asia now plays an important geopolitical role in the balance of power in Eurasia. Russia's role in the region is evolving, but it remains one of the leading ones. The pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have shifted the situation out of homeostasis. So it is now important to address the issue of security, support for small and mediumsized businesses, and the preservation and development of cultural and humanitarian links. Based on the Foresight procedure this article draws conclusions about the way forward for multilateral relations in the “Central Asia-Russia” format on the basis of the outcome documents announced by the Heads of the Central Asian States and the Russian Federation after their meeting. Using the rapid Foresight tools (anticipation, design, programming and projection), conclusions are drawn about the important position of the Russian Federation as a regional actor in the external policies of the Central Asian States. Its current position is strong, but not uncontroversial. The thesis of the interpenetration of the Russian and Central Asian economies has also been elaborated, since the backbone of low-diversifcation economies are energy and energy-transit. At the same time, one cannot ignore the powerful resource of soft power. The vast area of frontier communicativeness formed by the Kazakhstan-Russian border is a unique resource that can be exploited in the future. The article was based on the results of a scientifc discussion held at the National Communications Development Research Institution (NIIRC), Moscow, Russia in 2022.