철회논문]Central Asia and Water Conflict : Aral Sea and Kazakhstan

Abstract

There are conflicting views as to whether water scarcity will lead to cooperation or conflict. The central thesis of this paper is that conflict over water scarcity only becomes likely when it causes an existential threat to a population or state. The study identifies a requirement for a new definition of the most severe levels of water scarcity in response to the concept of virtual water. It proposes a new definition for absolute water scarcity based upon the presence of an existential threat to a population. Using the principles identified from a review of the water conflict debate and the new definition, the article examines two Central Asian case studies to gauge the likelihood of conflict. In the case of the Aral Sea, it concludes that regional geopolitics, assisted by International Organizations should be able to find a compromise. In the case of Kazakhstan’s Ili and Irtysh Rivers, it takes the view that water scarcity, demographics and geopolitics are likely to cause China to export their insecurity to other nations.