Center variability in the prognostic value of a cumulative acute cellular rejection “A-score” for long-term lung transplant outcomes

Abstract

The acute rejection score (A-score) in lung transplant recipients, calculated as the average of acute cellular rejection A-grades across transbronchial biopsies, summarizes the cumulative burden of rejection over time. We assessed the association between A-score and transplant outcomes in 2 geographically distinct cohorts. The primary cohort included 772 double lung transplant recipients. The analysis was repeated in 300 patients from an independent comparison cohort. Time-dependent multivariable Cox models were constructed to evaluate the association between A-score and chronic lung allograft dysfunction or graft failure. Landmark analyses were performed with A-score calculated at 6 and 12 months posttransplant. In the primary cohort, no association was found between A-score and graft outcome. However, in the comparison cohort, time-dependent A-score was associated with chronic lung allograft dysfunction both as a time-dependent variable (hazard ratio, 1.51; P < .01) and when calculated at 6 months posttransplant (hazard ratio, 1.355; P = .031). The A-score can be a useful predictor of lung transplant outcomes in some settings but is not generalizable across all centers; its utility as a prognostication tool is therefore limited.