Center-Periphery Dissonance as a Possible Factor of the Revolutionary Wave of 2013-2014

Abstract

Jack Goldstone proposes three predictors for acute social and political destabilization during the revolutionary wave of 2013-2014: (a) an intermediate level of per capita GDP, (b) a high level of corruption, and (c) a transitional type of political regime. After testing this theory on a broader sample, this study suggests and finds support for another predictor—“center-periphery dissonance” for the destabilization of the 2013-2014 wave. The emergence of this factor is common in the process of modernization, and is due to the heterogeneity of modernization processes, when a system’s central elements (“capitals”) are almost always modernized faster than its periphery. Identification of this factor is of considerable interest because accounting for this factor could significantly improve our capability to predict risks of sociopolitical destabilization of modernizing social systems.