Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress News Analysis: Trends in Latin America & Presidential Leadership

Abstract

A Reshaped Regional Narrative Too often, presidential administrations see the Western Hemisphere as a geopolitical afterthought. Despite geographic proximity, economic opportunity, and generally shared political values, the lack of a crisis in the region has relegated it to the bottom of the inbox behind other geopolitical regions such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. While the United States has been forced to confront challenges in these regions--and will continue to do so--it cannot continue to be at the expense of opportunities to improve relations with partners in the Western Hemisphere. Over the past year and a half, the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress has analyzed how the regional narrative has changed in ways that demonstrate the importance of political reform and economic growth to regional stability and integration. In many cases, it has been the Latin American middle classes and their increasingly global outlook that have driven this process. In others, it has been a combination of bold political leadership and reformist thinking that has driven new approaches to regional problems. In all areas, the growth of entrepreneurialism and private-sector initiative has been key to transforming Latin American economies and, thus, demanding more of Latin American political systems. Contrary to the Cold War--during which many preconceptions of Latin America were developed among policy makers (1)--the regional situation is not one of competition within the region. Rather, the region finds itself now defined by two narratives that are driven from within the region itself. The first is of nations backsliding away from democracy as populism and cronyism erode existing institutions and prevent the growth of civil society. Venezuelan oil largesse--combined with Cuban security and intelligence support--had allowed for the continued repression of the Venezuelan people and the spread of Chavez-inspired populism in the region. Brazil's economic potential remained unrealized due to political stagnation, widespread corruption, and overreliance on commodity-led growth. The shortcomings of these systems are laid bare in the Venezuelan economic collapse--a looming humanitarian disaster--and the political turmoil in Brazil. While significant attention has been paid to the failures in these countries, there is the second narrative: success stories from the region that serve as a model for U.S. policy makers and regional leaders. In this project, the examples of Colombia, Mexico, and Panama have been studied to look at their successes and how those lessons learned can be applied to the region as a whole. This report also examines cases from Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru to explore how some countries require continued engagement and support for major reforms to improve their prospects for economic growth and political stability. Additionally, during the course of this project, we have seen how the second narrative is ascended in nations that were once paralyzed by the cronyism and populism of the first narrative. Argentina is the greatest example of this, where the election of Mauricio Macri has ushered in a sea change from the period of Kirchnerism that saw Argentina largely isolated from global markets. Seeking reform at home and settlements with bondholders abroad, the new Argentinian leaders have seen that the future lies with reintegration into the global economy; not the preservation of the institutions constituting a neo-Peronist political economy. While these narratives are driven from within Latin America, that is not to say that U.S. leadership is a nonfactor in the outgrowth of these positive trends. As our analysis will show, the leadership of U.S. presidents in relations with Latin America is a key aspect of hemispheric integration and positive U.S. relations with the region. Consistent engagement with Latin American partners demonstrates how U. …