Centennial-scale cooling-induced megadroughts in Myanmar's tropical arid region over the past 8000 years

Abstract

The future impact of global warming on tropical arid regions is unclear due to uncertainties about the correlation between rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. A critical factor is the reliability of the sedimentary chronologies. Hence, to better understand the potential long-term consequences of climatic warming or cooling for tropical arid regions we compared a pollen record from the annually-laminated sediments of a crater lake in Myanmar with ice core records of the Siberian High, both of which have an annual resolution. Our findings reveal that over the past 8000 years, the Myanmar region experienced six significant drought events, three of which coincided precisely with intensifications of the Siberian High-pressure system. Furthermore, five out of these six events were synchronous with the North Atlantic Bond events within the limit of the dating uncertainties. Conversely, warm periods were associated with increased precipitation along with relatively short-lived drought events. Our findings suggest that regardless of the El Niño intensity, a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere may result in persistent extreme drought conditions in arid tropical regions. Therefore, as well as the environmental implications of global warming, it is also important to address the potential hazards associated with cooling, especially in arid tropical regions. To facilitate effective disaster management and to develop strategies for climate change mitigation, it is crucial to better understand the complex relationship between temperature fluctuations and drought. Overall, our findings are a reminder of the importance of not ignoring the potential disasters that may arise from cooling trends while focusing exclusively on warming.