Census Tracts Are Not Neighborhoods: Addressing Spatial Misalignment in Studies Examining the Impact of Historical Redlining on Present-day Health Outcomes.

Abstract

Research examining the effects of historical redlining on present-day health outcomes is often complicated by the misalignment of contemporary census boundaries with the neighborhood boundaries drawn by the US Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) in the 1930s. Previous studies have used different approaches to assign historical HOLC grades to contemporary geographies, but how well they capture redlining exposure is unknown. Our analysis included 7711 residences identified in the Multiple Listing Service database in Atlanta, Georgia (2017-2022). We evaluated the classification of HOLC grade assignment (A, B, C, D, or ungraded) when assigning exposure under four area-level approaches (centroid, majority land area, weighted score, and highest HOLC) compared with using complete address data (gold standard). We additionally compared approaches across three 2020 census geographies (tract, block group, and block). When comparing the use of census tracts to complete address data, sensitivity was highest for the weighted score approach, which correctly identified 77% of residences in truly A-D graded neighborhoods as compared with the majority land area (44%), centroid (54%), and highest HOLC (59%) approaches. Regarding specificity, the majority land area approach best-classified residences in truly ungraded neighborhoods (93%) as compared with the weighted score (65%), centroid (81%), and highest HOLC (54%) approaches. Classification improved regardless of approach when using census block compared with the census tract. Misclassification of historical redlining exposure is inevitable when using contemporary census geographies rather than complete address data. This study provides a framework for assessing spatial misalignment and selecting an approach for classification.