Censored Bayesian models for genetic evaluation of age at first calving in Brazilian Brahman cattle

Abstract

We compared different Bayesian models to handle censored data for genetic parameters estimation of age at first calving (AFC) in Brazilian Brahman cattle. Data from females with AFC above 1825 days of age were assumed to have failed to calve and were considered as censored records. Data including information of 53,703 cows were analyzed through the following methods: conventional linear model method (LM), which consider only uncensored records; simulation method (SM), in which the data were augmented by drawing random samples from positive truncated normal distributions; penalty method (PM), in which a constant of 21 days was added to censored records; and the bivariate threshold-linear method (TLcens). The LM was the most suited for genetic evaluation of AFC in Brazilian Brahman cattle based on the predictive ability evaluation through cross-validation analysis. The similar results for LM and PM regarding Spearman correlations, and the higher percentages of selected animals in common, indicated that there was not relevant reranking of animals when censored records were used. In summary, the heritability estimates for AFC ranged from 0.09 (TLcens) to 0.20 (LM). Given its poor predictive performance, the SM is not recommended for handling censored records for genetic evaluation of AFC.