Cellulitis Recurrence Score: A tool for predicting recurrence of lower limb cellulitis

Abstract

Cellulitis is the most common skin and soft tissue infection and is associated with frequent recurrences. An objective of our study was to identify factors for recurrence in patients who present with a first episode of lower-limb cellulitis. A secondary aim was to formulate a score based on observed clinical risk factors that might predict recurrence within a year. Dermatology referral forms and national computerized records were reviewed from 2003 to 2012. Demographics, coexistent dermatoses, local factors, and comorbidities were reviewed. A total of 102 (45.3%) of 225 patients had recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that lymphedema (P < .0005), chronic venous insufficiency (P < .0005), peripheral vascular disease (P= .002), and deep vein thrombosis (P= .008) predicted for recurrence. The Cellulitis Recurrence Score (CRS) was constructed based on these factors. CRS ≥ 2 was associated with a positive predictive value of 83.6% and negative predictive value of 67.5%. Model performance was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, P= .753). This is a retrospective study limited to an inpatient cohort. Lymphedema, chronic venous insufficiency, peripheral vascular disease, and deep vein thrombosis were risk factors. CRS is reliable for predicting recurrence, and early interventions should be considered in patients with CRS ≥ 2.