Abstract
Background: Road traffic accidents claim over 1.3 million lives annually around the globe and remain a key socio-economic challenge today. At 20.1 per 100 000, Botswana’s fatality rate is higher than the global average of 17.4. Previous studies on the causes of road crashes in Botswana have not explored statistical causality. This study is thus grounded on the theory of causality. Objectives: This study sought to determine the causes of road traffic accidents and fatalities in Botswana. For this purpose, the article discusses the accident count model based on Botswana data. Method: The study used road accident data from 2008 to 2017. Econometric modelling on Gretl was used to compute two ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models. Manual elimination of insignificant variables was performed through the iterations. Results: Both models are statistically significant at p ≤ 0.001, but the accident count model, with an adjusted R 2 value of 0.99 against 0.83, is more robust and has a better predictive power as opposed to the fatalities model. At the individual variable level, the analysis shows mixed results. Conclusion: The study contends that increased exposure and night-time travel increase road crashes, whilst expansion of road infrastructure is inversely related to road accidents. An increase in both population density and exposure leads to increased fatalities. Regulating the importation of used vehicles and investment in rail transport is a potential policy panacea for developing economies. Future studies should investigate the causes of pedestrian fatalities and night accidents.
Highlights
Road traffic accidents are becoming a serious socio-economic challenge of the 21st century, causing loss of life and property
In Catalonia (Spain), Basagana et al (2015) found that the risk of road crashes associated with driver performance factors increased by almost 3% during heat waves
There are efforts to follow accident cases beyond this approach, so that if an eventual death is determined to be caused by the accident, it can be recorded in the road fatality statistics
Summary
Road traffic accidents are becoming a serious socio-economic challenge of the 21st century, causing loss of life and property. With a share in excess of 90% of the global accident count, developing economies are the hardest hit compared to their developed counterparts (World Bank 2017), whilst facing the innumerable challenges of poverty and poor healthcare. The annual road traffic carnage is estimated to have grown from 1.2 million to 1.3 million (World Health Organization [WHO] 2015). The World Bank (2017) reports that approximately 20–50 million people are seriously injured annually. In the member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the average road accident fatality rate is 8 per 100 000 people (World Bank 2017). Road traffic accidents claim over 1.3 million lives annually around the globe and remain a key socio-economic challenge today. This study is grounded on the theory of causality
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