Causes and prerequisites of the occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk regions: empirical analysis of territories (on the basis of indicators of the democratization index “Freedom in the World 2020”)

Abstract

Summary. The article examines the main reasons and preconditions for the occupation of certain regions in eastern Ukraine. The influence and role of Russia in this military conflict are analyzed, and for the first time an empirical (applied) analysis of the democratization index in the temporarily occupied territories is carried out. Russia’s aggressive policy in eastern Ukraine is part of a “hybrid” war against Ukraine that began in early 2014 with the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. With the support of Russia, the so-called “Donetsk and Luhansk” people’s republics were created in eastern Ukraine. In essence, these are occupation military administrations that number more than 30,000 people, including regular troops and instructors of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. These are well-armed military formations, the number and combat capabilities of which are not inferior to the armies of individual European countries. In the temporarily occupied territories there is a total political and ideological “Russification”, the purpose of which is the alienation and further isolation of these territories from official Kyiv. It should be noted that the hostilities, which have been going on for the sixth year, pose serious economic, political, legal, and geopolitical problems on Ukraine’s path to consolidating the democratic regime and integrating with the European community. The change of political regime in 2013 in Ukraine opened up prospects for the consolidation of national identity and the restoration of the course of Euro-Atlantic integration, which was usually not accepted by official Moscow and personally by President Putin. It should be clearly understood that the war in Donbass, provoked by Russia, is the result of a systematic and long-term policy of Russia towards Ukraine as a country with a favorable geopolitical location and a kind of bridge between Europe and Russia. The article pays special attention to the theoretical and applied analysis of democratic development in Donbass. It should be noted that from 2020 “Freedom House” will start monitoring the territory and accordingly provide quantitative data on the democratization index with the appropriate analytical base and forecasts.