Abstract
In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.
Highlights
In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century
We focus this study on the breadbasket region, comprising 27 departments, and which together accounts for more than 67% of France’s total wheat production
The experts who have been analysing the possible cause of the extreme yield loss, all recognized a posteriori the abnormal precipitation and radiation conditions in the spring of 2016 and, some of them, the warmth of the preceding late autumn
Summary
In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. The 2016 extreme loss of wheat harvest in the breadbasket region of France is one such example, and we present here an in-depth analysis of this event and its implications for wheat yield forecasting. France ranks fifth in the global league table of national wheat production, and despite its limited arable area, produces more wheat than any other country in the European Union (EU) This is achieved because of very high yields. High observed wheat biomass at the very end of winter on the one hand and a strong confidence on the effectiveness of fungicides on the other, possibly explain that close-to-average yield values were anticipated by most experts until harvest started unfolding in mid-July.
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