Causality Relationship between Spot and Futures Bitcoin Prices in CME

Abstract

To protect against risks arising from fluctuations in spot prices and better manage risk, investors might evaluate futures markets. The role of price discovery in the futures markets and the possibility of reducing certain risks increase the importance of researching the relationship between spot and futures prices. This study aims to determine whether there is a relationship between the Bitcoin spot prices and the Bitcoin futures prices. To this end, the relationship between the two markets is analyzed using Johansen Cointegration analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using the daily data of the period 02.23.2017 – 08.31.2021. Unit root tests show that each series are not stationary at the level values and that the first differences of the series are stationary. The results of the cointegration analysis show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the bitcoin spot market and the bitcoin futures market, and it is a single cointegration vector. The Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model was used to determine the causality relationship between the series. It has been determined that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from the Bitcoin spot market to the Bitcoin futures market. Bitcoin is a new financial tool that attracts the attention of investors. Investors make transactions on Bitcoin for speculative purposes. Therefore, unlike other investment instruments, spot prices in the bitcoin market affect futures prices.