Causality Analysis for Non-Communicable Diseases, Obesity, and Health Expenditure: Toda Yamamoto Approach

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This study examines the causal relationship between non-communicable disease (NCD), obesity, and health expenditure in Turkey using econometric time series analysis. Data were obtained from the World Health Organization and Our World in Data for the years 1990-2019. We used a model structure capable of revealing robust causality between variables at consistent and successive time intervals to obtain reliable results. The Toda-Yamamoto econometric causality model was utilized in the E-Views 9.0 software for the analysis. The findings disclose three noteworthy results. Firstly, there exists causality from obesity to the burden of non-communicable diseases, meaning that obesity affects the proportion of non-communicable diseases in the population. Secondly, there is a causal relationship between obesity and health expenditure. Consequently, an increase in the obesity rate within society leads to a rise in the share of health expenditures in GDP. Lastly, the burden of non-communicable diseases in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) is also a determinant of health expenditures. By the obtained results from econometric causality, it is evident that NCDs, obesity, and health expenditure are interconnected as anticipated.