Abstract
Resumo A relação entre gestão fiscal e desenvolvimento tem sido objeto de muitos estudos aplicados, mas ainda são incipientes os trabalhos que investigam a relação de causalidade entre eles. Partindo da hipótese de que a eficiência na gestão fiscal resultaria em melhores indicadores socioeconômicos municipais, o objetivo desta pesquisa consistiu em investigar a relação entre gestão fiscal e desenvolvimento em 4.317 municípios brasileiros, no período de 2006 a 2013. Adotou-se o modelo de regressão com dados em painel e aplicação de causalidade de Granger. Os resultados indicaram a inexistência de relação de causalidade entre gestão fiscal e desenvolvimento e confirmou a relação de causalidade do desenvolvimento para a gestão fiscal, demonstrando que nem sempre a gestão fiscal eficiente sinaliza o uso eficiente dos recursos públicos para promover o desenvolvimento.
Highlights
Resource scarcity drives the state to balance revenue and expenditure, create institutions and economic conditions conducive for efficient and effective socioeconomic policies related to education, health, employment and income
Does good municipal fiscal management imply better socioeconomic indicators? Or better still, is there a causal relationship between fiscal management and socioeconomic development? It is hypothesized that efficiency in fiscal management implies better municipal socioeconomic indicators, resulting in a positive economic causality relationship between fiscal management and municipal development
This hypothesis is investigated through the analysis of the causal relationship between fiscal management - measured by the Firjan Index of Fiscal Management (IFGF) (Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro [Firjan], 2015b) - and municipal development of Brazilian municipalities - measured by the Firjan Municipal Development Index (IFDM) (Firjan, 2015a)
Summary
Resource scarcity drives the state to balance revenue and expenditure, create institutions and economic conditions conducive for efficient and effective socioeconomic policies related to education, health, employment and income. Despite the consequent increase in fiscal capacity, socioeconomic development has been heterogeneous, given the main criteria for the transfer of revenues contemplates population size and economic potential of the entities, especially for municipalities From this perspective, does good municipal fiscal management imply better socioeconomic indicators? It is hypothesized that efficiency in fiscal management implies better municipal socioeconomic indicators, resulting in a positive economic causality relationship between fiscal management and municipal development This hypothesis is investigated through the analysis of the causal relationship between fiscal management - measured by the Firjan Index of Fiscal Management (IFGF) (Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro [Firjan], 2015b) - and municipal development of Brazilian municipalities - measured by the Firjan Municipal Development Index (IFDM) (Firjan, 2015a). The study offers a practical contribution as regards providing evidence for discussions on the reformulation of the distribution of resources among federal entities, the central axis in fiscal federalism
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