Causal Relationships Between Economic Dynamics and Migration: Romania as Case Study

Abstract

Starting from an analysis made on Romania as a case study, the paper develops causal connections between economic dynamics and migration. The analysis is focused on internal and external migration flows during the post-socialist period. The data sources are collected from official statistics, empirical observations and different academic papers. The methodological steps are defined by each significant economic period and the impact on migration phenomenon. The results show an important correlation between the increasing domestic migration flow and the deindustrialization process. The effects of mining restructuring have totally changed the orientation of interregional flows. The traditional rural-urban flows changed direction in the reverse way. Especially, the metropolitan and peri-urban areas are the main winners in comparison with the cities. Excepting the first 2 years (when the ethnic emigration was dominant), during the entire next period, the emigration increased due to economic factors. If in the first three periods (until 2000) a permanent migration can be remarked, especially of highly educated people to USA and Canada, and working emigration especially in Israel, Germany and Austria, through temporary contracts. After 2001, the emigration flows increased dramatically, especially to Spain and Italy. During the financial and economic crisis, the preferences of migration flows changed the main destination, by replacing Spain with Italy (less touched by crisis). The economic consequences on the origin country are less visible at the national or regional level but relevant for some rural localities or small towns.