Abstract
Nowadays, a noteworthy temporal alteration of traditional hydrological patterns is being observed, producing a higher variability and more unpredictable extreme events worldwide. This is largely due to global warming, which is generating a growing uncertainty over water system behavior, especially river runoff. Understanding these modifications is a crucial and not trivial challenge that requires new analytical strategies like Causality, addressed by Causal Reasoning. Through Causality over runoff series, the hydrological memory and its logical time-dependency structure have been dynamically/stochastically discovered and characterized. This is done in terms of the runoff dependence strength over time. This has allowed determining and quantifying two opposite temporal-fractions within runoff: Temporally Conditioned/Non-conditioned Runoff (TCR/TNCR). Finally, a successful predictive model is proposed and applied to an unregulated stretch, Mijares river catchment (Jucar river basin, Spain), with a very high time-dependency behavior. This research may have important implications over the knowledge of historical rivers´ behavior and their adaptation. Furthermore, it lays the foundations for reaching an optimum reservoir dimensioning through the building of predictive models of runoff behavior. Regarding reservoir capacity, this research would imply substantial economic/environmental savings. Also, a more sustainable management of river basins through more reliable control reservoirs’ operation is expected to be achieved.
Highlights
In recent decades, the alteration of traditional hydrological patterns has been increasingly more evident both worldwide and over a particular territory [1,2,3]
The alteration of traditional hydrological patterns has been increasingly more evident both worldwide and over a particular territory [1,2,3]. This is essentially materialized by more frequent and less anomalous extreme events such as floods and droughts [4,5,6,7]. This is mainly due to global warming phenomenon [8,9,10], which is highly intensified by anthropogenic actions [11,12,13]
This methodology allows knowing, in detail and jointly, the behavior of water resources in the short and medium term (Figure 5; [0.4] and [4.7]), as well as their time-horizon (7 years versus 10 of the correlogram; Figures 3b and 5). It is worth highlighting the coherence between the Hurst coefficient (0.84) and the results obtained. It is remarkable the existing agreement between the dual pattern of behavior presented in Figure 5 and the analysis of the TCR and Temporally Non-Conditioned Runoff (TNCR) fractionstemporal behavior evolution shown in Table 3
Summary
The alteration of traditional hydrological patterns has been increasingly more evident both worldwide and over a particular territory [1,2,3]. This is essentially materialized by more frequent and less anomalous extreme events such as floods and droughts [4,5,6,7]. There is a growing necessity to design analytical strategies that allow: (a) an increase of knowledge on temporal
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
