Causal Loop Diagram approach of rice supply in anticipation of rice shortage in North Sumatera

Abstract

Rice is a staple food that requires important management in anticipating food shortages. This study aims to design a Causal Loop Diagram on the condition of rice supply in North Sumatera. The research was conducted in North Sumatera with the consideration that this area is the center of rice production which has decreased. The results of the study show that there are 32 variables that explain the causal relationship in the form of a Causal Loop Diagram of rice supply. Rice supply in North Sumatera is an accumulation of production, government rice reserves and imports. Rice consumption is assumed to only take into account consumption in North Sumatera without any exports outside the region. Positive and negative production is obtained through a combination of several factors of production. The total number of rice imports will positively increase with rice imports imported from several countries. The government’s rice reserves in Bulog come from the initial stock plus rice intake. The consumption of rice by the community will reduce the supply of rice in North Sumatera. Rice consumption increases in line with the increase in population and per capita rice consumption