Causal Inference and Counterfactual Reasoning

Abstract

As computing systems are more frequently and more actively intervening to improve people's work and daily lives, it is critical to correctly predict and understand the causal effects of these interventions. Conventional machine learning methods, built on pattern recognition and correlational analyses, are insufficient for causal analysis. This tutorial will introduce participants to concepts in causal inference and counterfactual reasoning, drawing from a broad literature on the topic from statistics, social sciences and machine learning. We will motivate the use of causal inference through examples in domains such as recommender systems, social media datasets, health, education and governance. To tackle such questions, we will introduce the key ingredient that causal analysis depends on---counterfactual reasoning---and describe the two most popular frameworks based on Bayesian graphical models and potential outcomes. Based on this, we will cover methods suitable for doing causal inference with large-scale online data, including randomized experiments, observational methods like matching and stratification, and natural experiment-based methods such as instrumental variables and regression discontinuity. We will also focus on best practices for evaluation and validation of causal inference techniques, drawing from our own experiences. We will show application of these techniques using DoWhy, a Python library for causal inference. Throughout, the emphasis will be on considerations of working with large-scale data, such as logs of user interactions or social data.